Jaya set to return with a bang !!!

Tamil Nadu has a history of alternately handing the seat of power to the two main Dravidian parties, the DMK and the AIADMK. And it should not come as a surprise if history repeats itself this time as well.

The state of 39 constituencies and the lone seat in neighbouring Puducherry go to polls in the last phase on May 13.

The opposition AIADMK had drawn a blank in 2004 in the face of a strong DMK combine that included the Congress, CPI, CPM, MDMK, IUML and the PMK, but this time the tide has turned with the CPI, CPM, MDMK and the PMK, who had bagged 14 seats between them the last time, switching sides and giving Jayalalithaa's party the decisive edge.

Party chief M Karunanidhi's ailment is adding to the DMK's woes. The chief minister is reportedly undergoing treatment for a kidney infection and has been advised against venturing out to campaign.

If the searing summer heat was not enough, the election commission clampdown on banners, posters, graffiti and public rallies after 10 pm has taken the colour out of campaigning and most candidates are seen holding road shows. The Sri Lankan Tamil issue has dominated campaigning, especially with LTTE chief cornered in a four-km stretch and thousands of civilians caught in the crossfire. The MDMK and the PMK are known sympathisers of the LTTE and with the AIADMK and Left parties toeing their line, the opposition alliance has gained an edge over the Congress-DMK combine.

The DMDK of actor-politician Vijayakant, who is dubbed the "dark MGR" because of his attempts to imitate former Tamil actor and CM in reel as well as real life, is contesting all 40 seats and could play spoilsport in at least a few.

"He has adopted a business model and told his candidates that whatever they spend this election is an investment. The party wants to increase its vote share from the current 8% to about 10%. The idea is that a higher vote share will translate into assembly seats. The winning candidates will be rewarded suitably then," party sources said.

With a week to go for polling, the balance seems to be in favour of the AIADMK alliance. The five-party coalition is expected to win at least 25 seats.

Issues:
Price rise, corruption, lawlessness, terrorism, nepotism, misuse of official machinery, unemployment, acute shortage of power and water, the impact of economic recession, especially on the garment industry in Tirupur, and the plight of Lankan Tamils. There are allegations of gross misuse of money power in the form of grants to temple festivals and exchangeable tokens to women voters. Cases have been registered against DMK cadres for giving Rs500 each to voters in Madurai, where Karunanidhi's son MK Azhagiri is making his Lok Sabha election debut.
Delimitation fallout:
Thirteen constituencies have been scrapped and 13 new created but the number of seats in Tamil Nadu remains 39. DMK and Congress candidates have lost four seats each, while the MDMK and the PMK have had to give up two each. The Congress' EVKS Elangovan has moved to Erode from Gobichettipalayam and JH Haroon Rashid has move to Theni from Periyakulam. The PMK's AK Moorthy will contest from Sriperumbudur instead of Chengalpattu.